Africa and Geopolitics: Imagining the World in 2040

What might the global order look like in 2040, and what will the changing geopolitical landscape mean for Africa?

A world in transition

The discussions took place against a backdrop of geopolitical volatility, economic fragmentation, technological change, climate pressures and uncertainty around the future of multilateral institutions.

In his opening remarks, MISTRA Executive Director Joel Netshitenzhe emphasised the importance of strategic renewal in responding to these changes: “Africa and the developing world at large have to set out along a new road of strategic renewal.”

He noted that governments, business, trade unions and civil society, alongside international partners, would need to engage with the forces shaping the next 15 years in order to consider possible pathways towards 2040.

FES South Africa Director Kathrin Meissner highlighted the value of developing the scenarios from an African perspective, noting that scenario-building is more than an academic exercise. She emphasised its potential to support strategic thinking about developments to monitor and the pathways that could shape different futures.

The Forum therefore positioned scenario-building as a means of examining uncertainty while creating space for different perspectives on Africa’s place in a changing international system.

Understanding the drivers of change

The keynote address by South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago focused on the policy challenges of the new global disorder.

He described the current period as one of profound transition, characterised by shifts in global economic power, intensifying geopolitical competition, rapid technological and artificial intelligence developments, contested trade, climate change and the energy transition.

“The old is dying, and the new is not yet born.”

For Africa, these global shifts intersect with both longstanding structural challenges and emerging opportunities. Kganyago pointed to the continent’s critical minerals, energy resources, agricultural potential, young population and growing consumer markets as important factors in considering its position in the global economy.

He also stressed that the challenges facing South Africa cannot be addressed by government or business alone, but require broader engagement across society.

The Forum’s discussions extended beyond economic questions to consider the changing nature of global power, Africa’s economic and fiscal sovereignty, climate change, migration, technological transformation, artificial intelligence, security, health systems and the future of work.

From uncertainty to scenarios

A central component of the Forum was the collective scenario-building exercise.

Participants assessed a range of variables according to their potential impact and level of uncertainty. Particular attention was given to high-impact, high-uncertainty variables, which will inform the development of the project’s key drivers and eventual scenario storylines.

The exercise forms part of an ongoing process led by MISTRA. Following the Forum, the results were to be reviewed with the project’s reference team before further workshops to develop and refine the scenarios. MISTRA indicated that the scenarios are expected to be launched in April or May 2027.
This process reflects the Forum’s emphasis on exploring multiple possible futures rather than treating 2040 as a predetermined outcome.

Africa as an active participant in shaping the future

The closing discussion returned to a central question running through the Forum: how can Africa engage with global transformation not simply as an observer, but as a participant in shaping the international environment?

In his closing remarks, Dr Ayanda Zaluba reflected on the value of creating spaces for strategic dialogue at a time of uncertainty and competing narratives.

“We’re also reminded that in human history, nothing is pre-ordained, that outcomes are contested.”

He emphasised the importance of drawing on intellectual capacity to consider possible futures and translating the ideas generated through the Forum into further research, publications, dialogue and practical engagement.

The Forum concluded with a commitment to continue this process through MISTRA’s scenario-building project. The resulting scenarios are expected to provide a basis for further research and discussion ahead of their public launch in the first half of 2027.

On 28 September 2026, the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA), in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) South Africa, convened the third MISTRA Forum on Africa & Geopolitics under the theme “Imagining the World in 2040: Global Geopolitical Scenarios and Their Impacts on Africa.”

The Forum brought together policymakers, business and labour representatives, civil society, academics and international experts to examine possible geopolitical pathways over the next 15 years. The event forms part of MISTRA’s broader project to develop scenarios for the global geopolitical landscape in 2040.

The conversation does not end with the Forum. The work of imagining possible futures continues — through research, dialogue and the development of scenarios that can deepen understanding of Africa’s place in a changing global order.

Watch the full conference recording here